The fivethirtyeight poll that I posted below isn’t the one that Nate Silver is talking about. He’s talking about a “now-cast” poll. He acknowledges that this is bogus. But this is fairly intellectually dishonest…if the poll is bogus, why even have it, why post it, and why talk about it?
Somebody please help me out here. I am genuinely confused. It is not clear to me if Nate Silver is a really bad liar, or if there is something very simple that I am missing when I look at his website. (Another explanation is that many news outlets are misreporting Nate Silver’s views or the numbers on his website. This seems unlikely in this circumstance, though, as it would be so flagrant and obvious.)
fivethirtyeight.com shows Clinton winning. See below, from today. In contrast, Facebook’s news feed indicates that Nate Silver says Trump will win.