Here’s an interesting article that more or less argues that the Fed has caused a bubble that is about to pop in the energy sector.

Here, I don’t want to speculate that the author of this article nor any of the commentators quoted therein are correct or incorrect. Similarly, I don’t want to argue that the Fed has or has not created a bubble (never mind that the concept of a bubble is almost certainly something that cannot be known in advance; it is probably a concept that only has meaning when viewing the past).

No, what I want to argue is that nobody has any clue what’s going on. These are (mostly) all smart people, both those who claim that the Fed has screwed up as well as those who claim the Fed isn’t or hasn’t done enough as well as the Fed governors themselves. But the system is way too complex. It’s too complex to be controlled, and it’s too complex to be predictable. Complex systems are, after all, complex.

In short, everybody is wrong. All the geniuses are wrong.

-JD Cross

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