Jobs numbers are out and the WaPo serves up this 4 year graph.

no shape cycle

Don’t let the macro guys fool you – there is no shape in this mess. There is no V shape*. There is no shape of any kind.

-JD Cross

* – I have argued previously (see comments in the article linked above) that you could in principle pull out a V shape (or seasonal V shapes) by fitting an absolute value function. This is true, but it still leaves an important point outstanding: even if you fit y = a*abs(b*x+c) +d you still need to know what range of values a and b can take on in order to have a “V” shape. That is: a and b set the graph’s vertical to horizontal scaling and the whole notion of a “V” shape is based on exactly this vertical to horizontal scaling ratio.

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