Because of the fiscal cliff deal passed last month many incentives for workers have changed. The CBO has had to revise its estimates for how many employees will leave employer-based health care and switch to Obamacare. The CBO has revised the number by about a factor of 2. That’s big. And as for the estimate of how many employers would opt to pay the fine rather than provider coverage for their employees? CBO estimate was off by a factor of 10.

Is the new estimate right? Probably not. But one thing is worth betting on: Obamacare is going to cost everybody more than anybody can predict.

Complex systems are complex.

-JD Cross