“He also said that campaign spending is not massively important in election outcomes. “The guy who ends up winning usually raises more money because he’s a more attractive candidate,” he said.
According to Dubner, the average congressional candidate could double his spending and gain only about 1 percent more of the vote. Halving spending would also have only a modest impact. “Our thinking about how campaign spending matters is antediluvian at best,” he said. (Related: Richest US Presidential Candidates).”
So, in the first case, if true, then most people think about fund raising exactly backwards. They mistake cause for effect.
In the second case, if true, then spending doesn’t really matter.